The market and the economy in 2015
It is fascinatingly easy to be overwhelmed by noise. The financial markets are dominated by a cacophony of signals, and selecting indicators in support of the view that you happen to hold at any given time is remarkably straightforward. Cherry-picking key figures is a popular and effective way of rationalising gut feeling.
Not infrequently, the outcome is very different from what many observers predicted it would be. For the average Norwegian investor, 2015 produced a reasonably satisfactory return on Norwegian shares, a very good return on international shares and disappointing returns on most corporate bonds – presumably a safer asset class than shares.
This is how we got there.
2015 in a nutshell
|S&P 500 return||+1.4%|
|MSCI World net (USD)||-0.9%|
|3-month NIBOR||from 1.48 to 1.13%|
|10 year Norwegian Treasury||from 1.61 to 1.54%|
|Share turnover Oslo Børs (value)||+5.3%|
|Brent Blend||from USD 57.33 to USD 37.28|
|USD/NOK||from 7.43 to 8.81|
|EUR/NOK||from 9.04 to 9.62|
|GDP growth global||3.1%|
|GDP growth Norway||1.6%|
|GDP growth Mainland Norway||1.0%|
Sources: Oslo Børs, S&P Dow Jones Indices, MSCI, Norges Bank, FactSet, IMF, SSB, Pareto.